If asked about recent business, most textile people would say that business has been poor lately, but is the demand really that bad? Not really. However, to say it's good, it indeed isn't that great.

The market is not lacking in demand.

From both macro and micro perspectives, the overall market demand has not significantly shrunk compared to the past, and some segments are even growing.

From a macro perspective, in October, China's textile and apparel exports reached 25.48 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion USD, up 16.1%; apparel exports were 13.09 billion USD, up 8.1%. From January to October, the cumulative export of textiles and apparel was 247.885 billion USD. With a significant increase in October exports, the cumulative export of textiles and apparel from January to October returned to positive growth. Among them, cumulative textile exports were 116.686 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, while cumulative apparel exports were 131.199 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. In terms of month-on-month comparison, textile and apparel exports in October increased by 2.83%, showing a significant off-season growth, marking the first month-on-month export growth in October in over a decade. According to customs data, from 2011 to 2023, domestic textile and apparel exports in October have shown a downward trend, with declines ranging from -14.49% to -0.67%. On average, from 2011 to 2023, the average month-on-month decline in October exports was -9.44%.

From a micro perspective, there are indeed orders in the market, including large orders reaching millions of meters, while the number of small orders is even greater. As long as one is willing to take them, there are always orders available.

Quality orders are scarce.

Although there are no shortages of orders in the market, quality orders are indeed very scarce.

In the current market, textile enterprises often find themselves in a low-profit, high-risk environment, with order payment terms extending longer, profits decreasing, inventory piling up, and cash flow becoming increasingly tight.

In the past, textile enterprises liked to develop new customers, but now many textile people report that they only do business with familiar old customers, fearing fraud.

Even if there are some very high-quality orders, they are difficult to circulate in the market, as they are intercepted by a few fixed companies. If there are really customers with good profits and prompt payments, one even has to consider whether the other party is a fraud.

Fabric loses price increase space.

To sell a product at a high price, it requires a difference in information and scarcity. The textile industry, being one that relies on the weather, often sees scarcity reflected in timeliness.

Why did canvas fabric become popular last year? Because the weather suddenly turned cold, clothing companies urgently needed canvas fabric in a short period, but the inventory of canvas fabric was very concentrated. Even though producing canvas fabric is not difficult and there is plenty of idle capacity in the market, during those few days of cooling, this capacity could not be quickly turned into fabric, thus creating scarcity for canvas fabric during that time.

However, this year's situation is completely different; the temperature has not dropped for a long time, and the big players in canvas fabric are already under significant inventory pressure.

In addition, with the rise of spot fabrics, there is already ample stock of conventional products in the market. Unless some fabrics suddenly become popular, like the new Chinese style at the beginning of this year, some conventional demands can no longer create an imbalance between supply and demand.

The information gap is even more pronounced. With the continuous spread of the internet, the information gap in the textile industry has gradually been erased. Many fabric prices can be known just by posting on social media or scrolling through Douyin; there are basically no secrets in the industry, making it naturally difficult to generate a premium.

How will the market trend in the future?

According to data from Longzhong Information, in the first two weeks of November, the average production and sales of domestic polyester filament remained low at 40% to 46%. This is partly due to the recent weakness of some polyester raw materials and also due to the poor order situation of weaving enterprises.

From the perspective of orders, although there is a certain expectation of export grabbing for domestic textiles and apparel before the inauguration of the new U.S. president next year, there is a short-term expectation of market improvement. However, in the later period, domestic textile and apparel exports will still face certain pressures. After January next year, some countries may adopt trade restriction measures, and the international trade environment remains complex, which will exert certain pressure on foreign trade exports. Additionally, with the development of the textile and apparel industry chain in other countries, such as Southeast Asia, it also exerts pressure on China's textile and apparel export market.