Since the beginning of this year, China's foreign trade has withstood pressure and shown strong resilience. In the first 10 months, the total value of China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 36 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. New driving forces for foreign trade are accelerating cultivation, and the international market share continues to increase, with China's exports contributing the most to global export growth. The overall development of China's foreign trade has maintained a good momentum of quality improvement and stable growth. From the perspective of intermediate goods trade:

Double growth in yarn and fabric exports from January to October

From the overall export situation of yarn and fabrics, from January to October 2024, China's intermediate goods exports reached 67.8 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, mainly driven by fabrics. In terms of specific products, yarn exports were 11.7 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and fabric exports were 56.1 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%.

Intermediate goods imports continued to decline from January to October

In terms of imports, China's intermediate goods imports continued to decline. From January to October, the cumulative import of yarn and fabrics was 6.57 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. In terms of specific products, yarn imports were 4.35 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%, and fabric imports were 2.22 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%.

Significant increase in intermediate goods exports in October, imports continued to decline

In terms of exports, in October alone, we exported intermediate goods worth 7.27 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, including yarn exports of 1.23 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, and fabric exports of 6.04 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 17%.

In terms of imports, in October alone, we imported intermediate goods worth 650 million USD, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, including yarn imports of 410 million USD, a year-on-year decrease of 29.4%. Fabric imports were 240 million USD, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1%.

Trump announces tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico

During the 2024 U.S. presidential campaign, Trump made tariffs a core principle of his economic agenda. Recently, Trump stated on social media that he would sign an executive order on his first day in office to impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on products from China. After the tariffs were imposed in 2018, Mexico and Canada became important "transit points" for Chinese goods exported to the U.S., and Chinese companies have invested in factories in Mexico. Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico are likely aimed at preventing Chinese goods from being exported to the U.S. through Canada and Mexico, thereby excluding China from the North American supply chain. For example, Mexican President López Obrador stated that the government has asked Mexican companies to replace Chinese-made parts with locally manufactured parts.

After he takes office, surrounding the America First stance, promoting the return of manufacturing, and imposing tariffs on China, I expect that before the policy is implemented, there will be a phenomenon of rush exports in the textile and apparel foreign trade, and exports to the U.S. may show rapid growth in the first half of 2025; after the policy is implemented, textile and apparel exports to the U.S. are expected to decline by 40-50% in the short term; in the long term, further decoupling of China-U.S. trade and accelerated transfer of the supply chain overseas.